The 2024 S&P 500 price targets

JPMorgan predicts a target of 4,200 for the S&P 500 and a $225 earnings per share (EPS) as of November 29, expressing skepticism about the consensus 2024 EPS growth of 11% due to anticipated economic challenges The bank suggests that negative corporate sentiment could lead to significantly lower estimates early in the coming year.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a target of 4,500 for the S&P 500 and an earnings per share (EPS) of $229 as of November 13, Tech-driven productivity growth, and anticipates a strong earnings growth environment in 2025 with a 16% year-over-year increase, expecting a forward P/E multiple of 17.0x at the end of next year.

UBS forecasts a target of 4,600 for the S&P 500 and an earnings per share (EPS) of $228 as of November 8, based on a year-end 2024 estimated multiple of 18.5x applied to the 2025 estimated EPS of $249, factoring in a decline in yields but anticipating that higher equity risk premiums will offset this benefit.

Amidst low VIX, tight credit spreads, a buoyant equities market, and heightened/volatile cost of capital, Wells Fargo suggests a strategic shift is in order, anticipating a 2024 characterized by volatility and ultimately a subdued SPX at 4,625, citing valuation constraints on the upside and heightened downside risk due to rate uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs anticipates a continuation of modest U.S. economic expansion without a recession in the next year, with a 5% growth in earnings, an equity market valuation around the current P/E level of 18x, and a forecast slightly below the usual 8% return seen during presidential election years.

Societe Generale suggests the S&P 500 is poised for a 'buy-the-dip' scenario, emphasizing improving leading indicators for profits, although cautioning that the path to year-end may be turbulent due to anticipated challenges, including a mild recession in the middle of the year, a credit market sell-off in the second quarter, and ongoing quantitative tightening.

Barclays anticipates a 2023 marked by a roller coaster, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of this cycle, and foresees US equities providing single-digit returns in the coming year due to the balancing effect of easing inflation despite a modest economic deceleration.